06
Oct
2008
The collapse of the EURO
Posted by John as forex
On June 1 when the EUR/USD was trading near its peak I wrote the following in a post titled “Has the EUR’s long term bull market ended?”:
The EUR has been in a bull market since 2002 but the economic and political fundamentals of Europe are not looking too good these days…and there are some dark [...]
03
Oct
2008
Has the sky fallen yet?
Posted by John as economy
I view the financial markets in terms of which theory is accepted by market players and increasing or decreasing in truth (or verisimilitude). The current dominant theory can be labeled “the sky is falling.” This theory and its effects will continue to increase in verisimilitude (degree of truth) in the days and weeks [...]
24
Sep
2008
Banking expert agrees - the bailout is not necessary
Posted by John as economy
Banking expert Bert Ely: “I have run the numbers looking at the capacity of the industry to pay the tab. Assuming that bank insolvency losses don’t get way out of line, which I don’t think they will, then the industry can handle it. It’s not going to be cheap, but the banks can handle it [...]
01
Jun
2008
Has the EUR’s long term bull market ended?
Posted by John as forex
The EUR has been in a bull market since 2002 but the economic and political fundamentals of Europe are not looking too good these days…and there are some dark clouds on the horizon for this currency when you consider the broader global socioeconomic framework.
Of course, the EUR was a flawed currency from the start (as [...]
30
May
2008
Will another large securities firm fail?
Posted by John as economy
A new report from Moody’s Investors Service explains that the biggest systemic risk to the $62 trillion credit-derivatives market is not its size and complexity but the potential failure of a large securities firm or investment bank which is acting as a counterparty. A bank collapse could damage the operational integrity and pricing in the [...]
16
Apr
2008
Hedge Funds Buying Distressed Securities
Posted by John as Market Action
Hedge fund managers are poised to leap into the pool of distressed and incorrectly priced securities created by the credit crunch.
Swiss private bank Union Bancaire Privée and Swiss manager Gottex Fund Management are launching funds that will invest in debt they believe is temporarily undervalued as a result of market conditions.
The opportunity is on a [...]
26
Mar
2008
Goldman sees $1.2 trillion global credit loss
Posted by John as Market Action
Maybe the economy is getting closer to bottoming out, the news is becoming even more negative:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs forecasts global credit losses stemming from the current market turmoil will reach $1.2 trillion, with Wall Street accounting for nearly 40 percent of the losses.
U.S. leveraged institutions, which include banks, brokers-dealers, hedge funds and [...]