03
Oct
2008
Has the sky fallen yet?
Posted by John as economy
I view the financial markets in terms of which theory is accepted by market players and increasing or decreasing in truth (or verisimilitude). The current dominant theory can be labeled “the sky is falling.” This theory and its effects will continue to increase in verisimilitude (degree of truth) in the days and weeks [...]
22
Sep
2008
Profiting from the credit crisis and bailout
Posted by John as Investing & Trading
So how can you profit in the future given where we are at currently in this particular boom bust sequence?
In a prior post titled “I don’t trade stocks… I trade theories” I wrote the following:
“I don’t invest in financial securities, I invest in theories. At any particular present moment, the markets have embraced a certain [...]
30
Apr
2008
Has the commodity bubble burst?
Posted by John as Market Action
Recently, broad based selling swept through the energy, grains, livestock and metals markets…. Has the commodity bubble burst, or is this just another short term correction in a continuing long term trend? The current situation is similar to what I described late last
20
Dec
2007
On commodities…
Posted by John as Market Action
The long term bull market in commodities remains intact, but the risk/reward at this point in time is not optimal. Risk, simply stated, is uncertainty. That uncertainty relative to the expected return over a period of time is what one must consider when judging whether a position is worth entering. When [...]