19
Nov
2008
Never Try To Catch A “Falling Knife”
Posted by John as Market Action
As many investors (Warren Buffet included) have been attempting to pick a bottom in this bear market over the last few months they are learning that this is a poor risk/reward proposition.
Mainstream and traditional investors have a great fear of missing a bottom in the stock market. This (among other things) creates bear market rallies [...]
24
Oct
2008
Thoughts on near term action in equities
Posted by John as Market Action
Many people have been telling me “we’ve hit bottom.” My usual reply is “well, were getting there but were not there yet….” Rallies will continue to be sold, they are just short term rallies against the dominant bear trend. The rest of October will continue to be down for equities, generally speaking, but there is [...]
03
May
2008
Buffet says Fed did the right thing…
Posted by John as Market Action
It’s probably because he benefits so much from the boom-bust cycles and bailouts that the Fed creates, but Warren Buffet is not bothered by the moral hazard, inflation, and debasement of the dollar
30
Apr
2008
LTCM Redux: Phd’s fail yet again
Posted by John as Market Action
Apparantly they did not learn the first time…. John Meriwether’s Long Term Capital Management hedge fund blew up in the late 1990’s and was bailed out. It looks like he is well on his way to another failure
30
Apr
2008
Has the commodity bubble burst?
Posted by John as Market Action
Recently, broad based selling swept through the energy, grains, livestock and metals markets…. Has the commodity bubble burst, or is this just another short term correction in a continuing long term trend? The current situation is similar to what I described late last
30
Apr
2008
China Sets Oil Consumption Record
Posted by John as Market Action
China’s oil consumption hits record high in first quarter
Soaring oil prices have not slowed China’s consumption of oil as statistics show that China’s apparent consumption of crude oil and refined oil products both hit record highs in the first quarter of the year.
According to statistics released Tuesday by the
29
Apr
2008
Europe Braces for Inflationary Shock
Posted by John as Market Action
http://www.iht.com. FRANKFURT: Europe is facing a “very strong inflationary shock” as a result of rising energy and food costs, the top European Union official for economic affairs said Monday as the price of oil neared $120 a barrel.
Joaquín Almunia, the EU commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, said that higher inflation was emerging as “a [...]
29
Apr
2008
Is this really 70’s style stagflation?
Posted by John as Market Action
April 28 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may have to start talking and acting more like Paul Volcker if he wants to avoid being remembered as another Arthur Burns.
With oil and food prices surging, Volcker told the Economic Club of New York on April 9 that “there are some resemblances between the [...]
23
Apr
2008
Food tensions creep to surface in USA
Posted by John as Market Action
WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - With global tensions over food supplies mounting, prices of world staples rice and corn surged on Tuesday amid strong demand and concerns over slow planting of the new U.S. corn crop.
Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank warned Asian countries against export controls, and the Inter-American Development Bank said the food-versus-fuel debate had [...]
22
Apr
2008
Bargains for high-grade bonds drawing in hedge funds
Posted by John as Market Action
LONDON (Reuters) - The credit market turmoil is presenting opportunities for funds to snap up investment grade bonds at bargain basement prices, particularly among financials, but the window of opportunity is unlikely to be open for long.
With hedge funds and other nimble investors coming back to the market, and historically wide spreads — the premium [...]