Monday, February 6, 2012

Has the EUR’s long term bull market ended?

June 1, 2008

The EUR has been in a bull market since 2002 but the economic and political fundamentals of Europe are not looking too good these days…and there are some dark clouds on the horizon for this currency when you consider the broader global socioeconomic framework. Of course, the EUR was a flawed currency from the start [...]

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Will another large securities firm fail?

May 30, 2008

A new report from Moody’s Investors Service explains that the biggest systemic risk to the $62 trillion credit-derivatives market is not its size and complexity but the potential failure of a large securities firm or investment bank which is acting as a counterparty. A bank collapse could damage the operational integrity and pricing in the [...]

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And Now: Introducing The Positive Side Of Globalization, Economics, & Finance…

May 7, 2008

It is always important to keep everything in context. At the present moment the majority of people are focused on the “negatives” in our world, and presently, things are indeed negative both politically and economically. It is also important to be objective and see the world as it truly is — understanding the broader trends [...]

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96% of Stockton, CA homeowners who purchased in 2006 are under water

May 7, 2008

My thoughts: The bottom in housing may not be here yet, and will probably take longer to achieve than most expect. But news like this means we are getting closer…. ————————————————————- You bought at the peak of the market. You put next to nothing down. (Maybe you even took out one of those 105% LTV [...]

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Returns are anything but normal

May 6, 2008

Much of modern finance and risk management is built on the concept of efficient markets and the “bell curve” or symmetrical normal distribution. However, out in the real world things are a bit different. Over the years many have treated the so called “black swan” events as something that is an anomaly. But when you [...]

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Foreclosure Rage: (former) homeowners take out their anger

May 4, 2008

Foreclosed homes are being damaged at a high rate as homeowners take out their anger on houses before they are forced to move out, increasing the costs for the banks that take back ownership (because they have to sell at a lower price as the new buyer has to pay for repairs. Is this just [...]

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Buffet says Fed did the right thing…

May 3, 2008

It’s probably because he benefits so much from the boom-bust cycles and bailouts that the Fed creates, but Warren Buffet is not bothered by the moral hazard, inflation, and debasement of the dollar

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Warren Buffett To Go Shopping For Bargains

May 2, 2008

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett, who has used dozens of acquisitions to beat every major U.S. stock index, is poised to extend his lead with more than $40 billion to spend as the credit crunch sidetracks other bidders. With the U.S. on the brink of recession, investors expect Buffett to deploy Berkshire’s cash to [...]

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LTCM Redux: Phd’s fail yet again

April 30, 2008

Apparantly they did not learn the first time…. John Meriwether’s Long Term Capital Management hedge fund blew up in the late 1990′s and was bailed out. It looks like he is well on his way to another failure

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Has the commodity bubble burst?

April 30, 2008

Recently, broad based selling swept through the energy, grains, livestock and metals markets…. Has the commodity bubble burst, or is this just another short term correction in a continuing long term trend? The current situation is similar to what I described late last

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