Friday, July 30, 2010

On March 26, 2008, I posted the following:
“Looking for a few stocks to go short as the bear market continues to run its course? check out these below, as of the morning of Wednesday, March 26th [click to continue…]

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Never Try To Catch A “Falling Knife”

by John on November 19, 2008

As many investors (Warren Buffet included) have been attempting to pick a bottom in this bear market over the last few months they are learning that this is a poor risk/reward proposition.

Mainstream and traditional investors have a great fear of missing a bottom in the stock market.  This (among other things) creates bear market rallies that smart traders and investors use to get short on the dominant bear trend. In my view, an investor or trader should exploit the actions of traditional investors, who usually wind up as victims of our inherently flawed economic/political system.

Its good to have a healthy dose of contrarianism in the mental framework that guides your decisionmaking, but it must be done in the right context….  Thus, I offer some advice [click to continue…]

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Obama’s Many Promises

November 11, 2008

Here they are – Obama’s biggest promises from his “blueprint for change” campaign speeches and advertisements…. I wonder how many he will keep?  Actually, we would be better off if he made no promises and did less.  That would mean less damage to the economy.  How I miss the days of political gridlock back in [...]

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Thoughts on near term action in equities

October 24, 2008

Many people have been telling me “we’ve hit bottom.”  My usual reply is “well, were getting there but were not there yet….”  Rallies will continue to be sold, they are just short term rallies against the dominant bear trend.  The rest of October will continue to be down for equities, generally speaking, but there is [...]

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The collapse of the EURO

October 6, 2008

On June 1 when the EUR/USD was trading near its peak I wrote the following in a post titled “Has the EUR’s long term bull market ended?”: The EUR has been in a bull market since 2002 but the economic and political fundamentals of Europe are not looking too good these days…and there are some [...]

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Paulson Plan Already “Irrelevant” – Whats next for the stock market?

October 5, 2008

Just as the incredibly horrible Paulson Plan bill passed the House of Representatives on Friday, equities markets tanked.  The reality of this Bill is setting in.  I started reading parts of the 400+ pages of this monstrosity and was forced to stop due to acute nausea.  It is nothing more than a gift to special [...]

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Has the sky fallen yet?

October 3, 2008

I view the financial markets in terms of which theory is accepted by market players and increasing or decreasing in truth (or verisimilitude). The current dominant theory can be labeled “the sky is falling.” This theory and its effects will continue to increase in verisimilitude (degree of truth) in the days and weeks ahead. Short [...]

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Here And Now: “Something To Look Forward To…”

September 25, 2008

Is it time to start preparing for the next boom-bust cycle? I can remember sitting in a graduate economics course back in the fall of 2001 that was being taught by a very bright man, who, like our current Fed Chairman, held a degree from MIT.  However, unlike Dr. Bernanke, our professor actually understood the [...]

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Banking expert agrees – the bailout is not necessary

September 24, 2008

Banking expert Bert Ely: “I have run the numbers looking at the capacity of the industry to pay the tab. Assuming that bank insolvency losses don’t get way out of line, which I don’t think they will, then the industry can handle it. It’s not going to be cheap, but the banks can handle it [...]

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Profiting from the credit crisis and bailout

September 22, 2008

So how can you profit in the future given where we are at currently in this particular boom bust sequence? In a prior post titled “I don’t trade stocks… I trade theories” I wrote the following: “I don’t invest in financial securities, I invest in theories. At any particular present moment, the markets have embraced [...]

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