Earnings are bad, inflation is bad, the credit crisis is bad…. But isn’t it always darkest before the dawn? Are stock market bottoms not made when the news is the worst and things look bleakest? Yes and yes.
But how does one know when a bottom is in place? It’s very simple. The price action will tell you. Looking at long term charts of equities, such as the sp500, dow, etc, in my view the dominant trend remains down and rallies should continue to be sold and a long/short portfolio should be more heavily weighted toward the short side. Eventually things will change, probably at the end of 2008 or early 2009 and the dominant trend will turn bullish…. but for now short positions are in order until the fundamental context and price action prove otherwise. –John Bardacino