The long term bull market in commodities remains intact, but the risk/reward at this point in time is not optimal. Risk, simply stated, is uncertainty. That uncertainty relative to the expected return over a period of time is what one must consider when judging whether a position is worth entering. When [...]

A few posts back I wrote that what we were increasingly likely to get here in the US is stagflation. One of the headlines in a Reuters article today was “Greenspan sees early signs of stagflation.” I am sure this does not come as a surprise to him, given the role he played [...]

The currency markets remind me of a group of gamblers sitting at a blackjack table. They are all arguing over who is more miserable. They all have their problems and are inherently flawed. The only question is who will fall apart first. Will the debasement be slow or fast?
Since they are [...]

I wrote the other day that I thought Bernanke would ease 1/2 a point. Given the state of the financial markets, that is what he should of did. Before I go any further, let me say that I am looking at this in light of the economic & social framework that is currently [...]

The USD index is currently a little above 76. Looking at it, I can help but feel that it is ready for another leg down. The risk /reward is not as favorable as one would like, as there is some probability for a correction up to 80. So I would short this [...]